4 January 2013

Analysis of the poll

Relatively speaking, your poll had more-or-less matched the national trend. To make it up, I combined a poll I took at my local school in Harrow and combined it with the survey results. This wasn't accurate, but neither is any system. You put Labour on 40%, the Conservatives on 32%, the Liberal Democrats on 10%, UKIP on 7%, and the others on 11%. The change on last time is clear to see. Labour are up 10% on the election in 2010, the Conservatives down 5%, the Liberal Democrats down 14%, UKIP up 3%, and the others up 4%.  These may not total 100% because of rounding.

Using the electoral calculus on the "old" 2010 boundaries (which now look likely to stay), here is your seat prediction, and this is yours, not mine:

Labour 376 (+118)
Conservatives 227 (-79)
Liberal Democrats 20 (-37)
Others 27 (-2)

This gives Labour a majority of 102.

This table details your results. The easiest seats for Labour to win are at the top, and the easiest seats for the Conservatives to win are at the bottom. The vote shares are projections. Any seat coloured in is a gain. Buckingham should be number one at the bottom, but it is omitted as it is the speaker's seat and so Labour and the Lib Dems will not stand there. This is your prediction here.

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