9 September 2013

Union U-Turn

To study the future, first we must look at the past. The chart on the right is a clear indication of what happened in the 2010 Labour Leadership Election. The MPs and the Party members broadly agreed on who should win - with David Miliband standing out in all four columns. However, with the unions involved, which had 33% of the vote and voted completely against what the MPs and Party Members did. The unions elected Ed Miliband, not the Labour party itself.

Now, the unions are cutting Labour's funding. With it comes Ed Miliband's idea to cap political party donations at £5,000 and make you, the taxpayer, pay for all main political parties. So get ready to cough some money up to the Liberal Democrats. Unless the 'miltax' is stopped.

But why have the unions cut it? I'll tell you why. Ed Miliband has been hopeless. He chirps and chirps at the government, but no amount of projectile fire extinguishers will cause Cameron to U-turn. Then he picks a man who the unions voted Diane Abbott over in round one as shadow chancellor: Ed Balls, who Gordon Brown adored but Nick Clegg once said that 'if you want to take a negotiation seriously, don't bring Ed Balls'. It's half and half for Red Ed. The unions have had enough.

Now where do the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and everyone else go?

The first step for both main parties is to vanquish the UKIP threat. If you believe the Daily Mirror (and why would you anyway?) then UKIP would end up with one seat and creating a four-way marginal in Sebastian Coe's old seat of Camborne and Redruth, with all four main parties within 3.5% of the UKIP winner. Somehow, Labour would end up second. It would be:


Or, if you believe The Sun (well, at least it's better than the one I mentioned earlier), Camborne and Redruth becomes this:


But what now? We'll find out on 8 May 2015. With such a big polling variety, this election will be tight...


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