30 September 2015

The adjusted-for-difficulty Premier League table (Week 10/38)

So, I know I forgot to do this last week. I'm sorry.

Anyway...

Arsenal lead from Manchester City, then come Manchester United, followed by West Ham. There aren't that many changes to point out from the real table, to be brutally honest, apart from Everton and newly-promoted Watford. Everton have played the hardest fixtures of anyone, whereas Watford have benefited from the teams around them losing positions due to them having played much easier games. Swansea, for example, have had the easiest fixtures, followed by West Brom, explaining their lofty 10th place in real life.

Chelsea aren't doing too badly, but that's as much as can be said for them. Otherwise, it's practically as you were in the relegation battle.

MOST OVERRATED TEAM: Southampton, West Bromwich Albion, Swansea City (-3)
MOST UNDERRATED TEAM: Everton, Watford, Chelsea (+3)





OK, so, to explain a little bit about this graph.

The league table lies. It is no good being in 1st place if you have played 20th, 19th, 18th, and 17th, without having played anyone good. Similarly, if you're on 3 points having played solely the top four, take heart from the fact that you're not so bad.

In terms of the formula we've used, we've added up the positions of all of the teams each Premier League club has played so far, and worked out their average difficulty. We've then divided the number of points by the average difficulty, and reranked the table based upon that. Yes, I know it's a circular argument, but can you think of anything better?

On this graph, the X axis is where each team is in real life, and the Y axis is where the teams are on "our" ranking. Any team with a point that is higher on the Y axis than the trendline is overrated, any team below is overrated.

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