13 May 2016

Eurovision Song Contest Results Under Different Voting Systems

(Look out for a post doing this the other way round (i.e. election results under a points system) whenever I feel the need to procrastinate over something...)

Sitting down to do some Politics revision, I suddenly realised I'd have to revise voting systems and to check if I understand them fully. After familiarising myself with the D'Hondt method and the Droop quota, for the majoritarian systems I realised I should use Eurovision results.

Think about it. If your "12 points" is your first preference vote and so on, you could calculate FPTP, AV, and SV election results.

So, here goes.

2015

FPTP

Sweden win with 30% of the vote.

The table:

Sweden 30%; Italy 23%; Russia 13%; Latvia 8%; Belgium 8%; Australia 5%; Albania 3%; Armenia 3%; Azerbaijan 3%; Montenegro 3%; Romania 3%; Serbia 3%.

AV

Straight away we have a problem here. Once the people with no 12 points have been eliminated (bye, Electro Velvet), Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Montenegro, Romania, and Serbia all received one vote each, so who gets eliminated? To save time, we've axed all of them in one go. Also, Google doesn't tell me.

So the transfers are as follows. In circumstances where they've given their 10 to (say) the UK, then we go down to 8 pts, and so on:

Italy <- Albania, Armenia
Sweden <- Azerbaijan
Russia <- Montenegro, Romania, Serbia.

The table is now as follows:

Sweden 33%; Italy 28%; Russia 20%; Latvia 8%; Belgium 8%; Australia 5%.

On we go, then. Goodbye Australia. Their two votes are redistributed as follows: Italy and Belgium, one vote each.

Sweden 33%; Italy 30%; Russia 20%; Belgium 10%; Latvia 8%.

Still nobody has 50%, so we go on. Latvia's three votes are redistributed thus: two to Sweden, one to Italy.

Sweden 38%; Italy 33%; Russia 20%; Belgium 10%.

Goodbye Belgium: two to Sweden, one to Russia, one to Italy.

Sweden 43%; Italy 35%; Russia 23%.

Russia is out. Their votes are allocated thus: Sweden (x7), Italy (x2).

Sweden 60%; Italy 40%.

Sweden wins.

SV

Now, this is slightly different, in that we only consider the 12 and 10 points.

Use the FPTP table as before, but for SV, everyone but the top two is eliminated - Sweden and Italy.

The votes for the other nations were thus - if in brackets, their 10 points is meaningless.

Russia -> 3x Sweden, (2x Georgia)
Latvia -> 2x Sweden, 1x Italy
Belgium -> 2x Sweden, (1x Russia)
Australia -> 1x Italy, (1x Belgium)
Albania -> (1x Serbia)
Armenia -> (1x Azerbaijan)
Azerbaijan -> 1x Sweden
Montenegro -> (1x Russia)
Romania -> (1x Russia)
Serbia -> (1x Albania)

This means that the head-to-head churns out the following:

Sweden 65%; Italy 36%.

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