9 January 2018

2017-18 Ashes Review - I Told You So!

I hate being proved right sometimes. It means that my predictions of doom and gloom have come to fruition. Both my Ashes preview and my review of England's tour of Bangladesh and India highlighted major concerns, only one of which has been addressed, which was Alastair Cook's captaincy, but old habits on that front crept into Joe Root on this tour. I get the sense Root is being micromanaged from Bayliss, for the flexibility and attacking prowess Root showed in the summer went distinctly missing. But anyway...

12 months ago, I said this:

"The fault really lies with the bowlers, with Cook's terrible (mis)management of them, and [his management of] Batty in particular."
Now, Cook and Batty are out of the way (solving those problems), but exactly the same thing has happened again. England have put good first innings totals on the board, and the bowling has let them down.

I said England's strength was its seam bowling, and at times they stood up and did their jobs - Adelaide in the second innings springs to mind. The more worrying disparity is between the spin bowlers (just as I expected). Another year and it's another poor tour for Moeen Ali. 5 wickets at 115 really should kill off his England test career. This disastrous series is even worse than his tour of India last year (10 wickets at 65) and he is quickly becoming a home track bunny, even more so than the likes of Anderson and Broad.

The three main seam bowlers of Anderson, Broad, and Woakes just about put their heads above water, but it all seemed to not come at the right time. Anderson was, in my opinion, England's best player on the tour. He would be very unlucky to not make it into a combined XI. But he cannot be expected to do it all the time for England, and it speaks volumes that England failed to take 20 Australian wickets once in the series (mind you, they only did this once against India last year as well). 

*includes run outs and other wickets not attributed to bowlers
I'm not sure Trevor Bayliss is the right man to lead England forward in test matches overseas, as a result. As you can see from this graph, our bowling average overseas started poorly and is just getting worse and worse (a low-scoring series vs Bangladesh notwithstanding).

As I hinted in my preview, I subscribe to the David Lloyd theory of "if everyone beats their opposite number, we'll do well". Well, if we look at this chart, comparing the players by position (senior opener, junior opener, number three, captain, number five, wicket keeper), we see that of the main batsman, only Stoneman has beaten his opposite number:

I was going to let Bairstow off the hook initially, as Paine had two not outs, but then I saw that Bairstow only scored 114 runs in 3 additional innings, so maybe not. This continues with the 4 main bowlers:

Here are the batting figures overall, and then we'll move on to more "I told you so", then we'll talk about who I'd pick against New Zealand.

Using the same criteria I used to give a very rough prediction of the team's scores, that same calculation gives Aus 567, Eng 298. I wasn't far off on the England figure, but Australia's figure was way above the 365 I suggested.

Other things I told you so...

(in alphabetical order)

"Ali may not be good enough to tie an end up" - Ashes preview

"Arguably England's worst spinner on this tour, Moeen Ali averaged a pathetic 64.90" - India review

"England should fly Stokes out now and deal with the recriminations and deportations later" - Ashes preview

"I expect Australia to win to nil." - Ashes preview

"I retain my belief (for now) that [Ali] shouldn't be England's main spinner. He had one good series this summer - indeed, I was at The Oval for the hat trick - but one swallow doesn't make a summer. Only a good winter will finally convince me to him." - Ashes preview

"So who's going to win? Australia." - Ashes preview

"Stoneman will have to do what none of the other openers did - not just hit one huge innings in the first couple of tests and then fail for the next few." - Ashes preview

"There are approximately 10 spin bowlers with a better claim than Mason Crane to that seat on the aeroplane, and only two of them are going (Ali, Root). Did Adil Rashid run over a selector or something?" - Ashes preview

"Vince, meanwhile, constantly wafts outside off stump and gets away with it in county cricket but was found out time and time again at test level" - Ashes preview

"Whilst Rashid finally came good in the India series (after a poor Bangladesh one), Moeen Ali had an absolute shocker with the ball, and must be time to drop him - or at the very least use him as a specialist batsman." - India review

New Zealand

If we assume there are 16 spots available, who goes? Who stays? And who goes home? I would retain Cook and Stoneman at the top - Stoneman has been unlucky and hasn't shown a major technical flaw as Bancroft and Vince have. Additionally, the next cab off the rank in terms of openers could well by Stoneman's team mate at Surrey, Rory Burns, and I'd take Rocky over Burnsy any day. I namechecked Vince, and yep, Vince goes home for me. His technical flaw is too disastrous to persist with. Rather than go shooting in the dark for number three again, I'd rather have Root bite the bullet and go up there himself. After all, that's where Williamson will be. I would have Malan at 4, and I'm going to bang the drum again for Steven Davies at 5. He's scored runs year after year after year for Surrey and now Somerset, even scoring just shy of 800 for the season on those Taunton Bunsen burners. Ben Stokes, if eligible, plays at 6. Jonny Bairstow should be retained at 7. The next one is a bit of a major climbdown for England, but I really feel they have no other alternative than to go back to Adil Rashid at 8. That allows for Roland-Jones (if fit) at 9, Broad at 10, and Anderson at 11. That's a fairly realistic selection, Davies aside. If I had a completely free rein I would play 4 bowlers, and leave Roland-Jones out for an extra batsman (Foakes?). As for the 5 that would fly but I wouldn't start them: Liam Livingstone, Keaton Jennings, Ben Foakes, Moeen Ali, and Chris Woakes. Potentially get rid of Livingstone for another seamer, but I'd be happy with that selection.

Anyway, if you enjoyed this, don't forget to share it. You never know, if the England selectors read this it might knock some sense into them...

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